Since the start of the pandemic, labor unions have experienced a resurgence, making progress in nonunion companies like Starbucks and Amazon and securing strong contracts for workers. Public approval for unions reached its highest level since the Lyndon Johnson presidency. However, unions have yet to face a true test on a national scale. Previous potential strikes by railroad workers and UPS employees were avoided, and the impact of writers’ and actors’ strikes was concentrated in Southern California. The current strike by the United Automobile Workers (U.A.W.) could be the defining moment for unions. A favorable contract with wage increases and concessions from automakers could establish organized labor as a major economic force and stimulate further organizing efforts. However, there are risks involved. A prolonged strike could harm established automakers and lead the Midwest into recession. If the union appears to overreach or settles for a weak deal after a costly strike, public support could wane. The U.A.W.’s new president, Shawn Fain, has emphasized the high stakes of the negotiations, framing it as a battle between ordinary workers and corporate elites. This framing resonates with members, who see it as an opportunity to regain lost concessions and inspire a trickle-down effect in other industries. The strike could have broad reverberations and encourage workers in various industries to organize. However, it could also create frustration and hardships for nonunion workers and their communities. Aggressive demands from the U.A.W. and other union leaders may discourage investment in the U.S. and make companies less competitive internationally. The union’s long-term viability and the potential shift of production to Mexico are also concerns. Nonetheless, a successful strike could lead to significant gains for autoworkers and encourage organizing efforts in other nonunion plants. It is crucial for the U.A.W. to secure a strong contract and avoid settling for a subpar deal. The union’s framing of the fight in class terms has garnered significant public support, offering a potential advantage. Unlike the failed air traffic controllers’ strike in the 1980s, the U.A.W. is actively building a broad coalition of allies, which could lead to a different outcome.
